Epoxidized Soybean Oil Industry Chain Rebounded, Short-term Strength Or Continuation

Plasticizer industry chain rebounded, short-term strength or continuation

During the week, crude oil broke down sharply, and chemical products futures also showed a clear trend of falling, and the market panic atmosphere began again. Different from the trend of the spot products in the big chemical industry, supported by the double benefit of the expected reduction in cost and supply, this week, plasticizers and raw materials rose more and more, and the spot showed strong anti-fall characteristics. Due to the fundamentals of each product and the expectations of the market, the performance of the two main raw materials and plasticizers this week are not the same. In terms of average price, the product with the biggest increase this week was phthalic anhydride. The rest of the products were DOP and octanol. The performance of o-benzene was weak. The weekly fluctuations of each product were +1.48%, +1.11%, +0.91% and -0.81%.

The market performance of plasticizers and raw materials this week will be analyzed in detail below.

O-Benzene: This week, the domestic benzene spot market remained at a low level. According to the data monitoring of Jinlian, the spot inventory of benzene in the terminal is around 56,000 tons, and the high inventory pressure is still the main factor plaguing the market. During the week, the downstream phthalic anhydride market was affected by the tight supply of spot stocks, and the overall center of gravity rose again. Although the supporter's mentality was supported, the limited demand gap was affected, which greatly restricted the release of market volume. The market continued to fluctuate at a low level. Consolidation.

Phthalic anhydride: The domestic phthalic anhydride spot market has once again surged this week. During the week, the tight supply of spot stocks in the market is undoubtedly the main factor determining the market's upward trend. On the one hand, the domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride supply is affected by the downstream purchases before and after the May Day holiday. The naphthalene phthalic anhydride factory is generally oversold until mid-May. On the other hand, the domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride was shut down for maintenance by some devices, and the downstream part of the gangrene industry was just in need of procurement, resulting in a tight supply of domestic phthalic anhydride industry. During the week, driven by the tight market sentiment, the downstream plasticizers stabilized and rebounded, giving the market strong support, thus boosting the overall market focus.

Octanol: The domestic octanol market has stabilized this week. The raw materials of the May Day holiday were stable, and the manufacturers' offer was temporarily stabilized at the beginning of the week, but the market price was reduced. Factory maintenance is nearing reluctance to sell and sales of off-sales, boosting market sentiment. During the week, the raw material propylene rose, and Shandong Lihuayi entered the overhaul. The cost and supply side were positive, and the market outlook was expected. The downstream fears increased and the market began to replenish. Near the weekend, although crude oil and futures fell sharply, but the purchase support was just needed, the manufacturers' willingness to push up was strong, and the factory price was raised by 200 yuan/ton. The market price disappeared and the focus of the talks moved up. The raw material propylene continues to be explored, and the overall market atmosphere is acceptable. In summary, the recent octanol market is stable and rising.

DOP: This week, the domestic DOP market has steadily increased slightly. As of this Friday, the East China market closed at 7950-8050 yuan/ton, the North China market closed at 7900-8000 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong market closed at 8100- 8150 yuan / ton around the delivery, the average weekly price rose by 1.36%, including North China led 1.74%. After the holiday, the domestic market showed a slight upward trend. The market inventories were not large. The double raw material offer increased to bring support to the market. The market followed the increase in raw materials. However, it is reported that the downstream procurement is just a small order, and the overall expectation is still cautious. Although the price has risen during the week, the price is not large.

Next week's forecast: Due to the fundamentals and the upcoming maintenance season, the recent plasticizers and the two major raw material chain products are in a strong trend. As the supply gap remains, the spot strength situation is expected to continue in the short term.

It is worth mentioning that after entering May, crude oil futures fell below the previous support, and the domestic commodity futures market fell sharply, which led to the rapid turn-off of the spot market. In the short term, although the plasticizer chain products have strong anti-fall properties, the current status of the macro level is undoubtedly will suppress its market growth. Because the early de-stocking effect of the chain is better, and the environmental protection and maintenance seasons are less favorable, it is expected that the risk of the commodity futures plunge will be transmitted to the plasticizer chain or continue to be delayed.


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