PTA May Be Ending A Three-year Streak Of Rising Imports
According to the estimation of PTA import volume from January to November, the import volume of PTA in 2019 will be around 980,000 tons, a new high in nearly four years. The import volume of PTA from 2016 to 2019 will be 47, 53, 78 and 980,000 tons/year respectively, and the import volume of PTA will increase for three consecutive years.In 2020, China's pta re-enters the stage of crazy expansion, and the author predicts that the import volume of pta will end the momentum of three consecutive years of growth in 2020.
The author statistics 2016-2019 China pta new capacity of 7.8 million tons/year (+ 16.8%), polyester new capacity of 12.2 million tons/year (+ 26.4%), 2016-2019, pta at the slow expansion stage, the market overall digestive crazy expansion in 2012-2014 is given priority to, and the downstream polyester capacity rate is far higher than that of the pta. Polyester in 2017-2019 annual average work load in 85% - 87%, increased demand for pta rigid, to some extent, increase the imports of the pta.In 2020, the theoretical increase of pta capacity is 14.1 million tons/year, while the theoretical increase of polyester capacity is only about 5 million tons/year. From 2020, the excess pressure of pta is relatively large.
In 2020, the theoretical allocation of pta is 14.1 million tons/year. According to the average annual construction load of 76% in 2017-2019 and the average annual production capacity of 14.1 million tons in 2020, the author estimates that the estimated production of pta in 2020 is between 4846 tons and 519.2 million tons/year.The downstream polyester production capacity is planned to increase by about 5 million tons/year. According to the actual production capacity of 60%-80%, the actual new production capacity is about 3-4 million tons/year. According to the author's annual average starting load of 86% of polyester in the recent 3 years, the theoretical demand of pta in 2020 is about 45,49-46.23 million tons/year.In 2020, the trend of pta oversupply is obvious.An guang of the author believes that there is a high probability of production loss under the excessive pressure of pta in 2020, which will force small and medium-sized factories, especially the old ones, to shut down, while the large factories newly put into production will occupy the market share of the old ones, and the import volume of pta will decline sharply in 2020.
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