PTA Price “collapse”
The main reason for today's halt was the sharp drop in PX prices yesterday.The price of PX dropped by 35 dollars yesterday, which is a big drop.The decline of PX directly led to the collapse of pta cost end.In fact, from the perspective of PTA itself, the current supply and demand pattern is relatively healthy.There are devices in the supply side for maintenance, so the operating rate of the whole supply side is around 80%, which is a decline from the previous 87%.Demand side performance is good, the current PTA direct downstream polyester performance is very good, maintain more than 90% of the demand load.This operating rate is relatively high compared with that of recent years.With such high demand and the supply contraction of PTA, the inventory has been rapidly depleted recently.At least in April and may is clear to the state of the warehouse.
From the point of view of PTA profit, PTA processing fees have now been in about thirteen, four, but last year actually pulled to a more than 2000 is the case.In such a high level of processing fees, PTA plant is not willing to stop, so early to see the device news flying.From say to want overhaul, but later not overhaul, affirm finally overhaul.In such a high profit, it is highly possible that PTA device is to shorten the maintenance period, resulting in less obvious overall supply contraction.
At present, generally speaking, at least until April and may, PTA, in addition to the cost, supply and demand drive or slightly biased some.However, we should pay more attention to the cost in the future. After all, this year is the year when PX production capacity is put into production.Personally, I think the profit of PX may be reduced to $300 to $350. We will give PTA a reasonable processing fee, which may be around $1000 to $1300 or even $1500.So you can measure the bottom position of PTA.The PTA09 contract has reached the level of around 6000, and there are about two or three hundred points left below.Personally, I think the current valuation of PTA09 is a little bit low, so if the cost can stabilize, may be driven by supply and demand, or to go up.But in the second half of the year, oil prices, in May and June to watch the Opec production cut meeting, whether the production cuts will last until the end of the year.
Now I mainly focus on two aspects, one is the degree to which the profit of PX can be compressed, and the other is the situation of the terminal.As far as I know, there are some signs of weakness in terminal demand, and the price transmission is not smooth, so I may need to pay attention to this information.
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