PTA Supply Outlook In 2019
2012-2016 was the low point of PTA industry. The production capacity of PTA in 2015-2018 was slow, and the PTA plant of sichuan shengda with one million tons was not put into production after completion.With the improvement of PTA supply and demand, the recovery of profit and the gradual improvement of industry prosperity, enterprises such as xinfengming group, hengli petrochemical, tongkun petrochemical and chengxing group have been accelerating PTA construction.From 2020 to 2021, PTA will usher in a new round of production capacity launching peak, in which the new fengming 2.2 million tons and hengli petrochemical 2.5 million tons will be put into production at the end of 2019. It is expected that the impact of the new device on the market will not appear until 2020 at the earliest.
In 2016 and 2017, only one PTA device was put into operation. In 2018, no new PTA device was put into operation, and the nominal capacity growth of PTA was slow.In the second half of 2016, the downstream polyester industry came out of the downturn, and the demand for PTA increased rapidly, and the operation rate of PTA increased continuously. It is estimated that the utilization rate of PTA capacity will be increased to 78.87% in 2018, and the actual effective utilization rate will be increased to 89.19%.Considering that the current actual capacity utilization rate is already very high and the room for improvement is limited, and the next PTA capacity launching cycle needs to wait until 2020, it is expected that the domestic supply growth of PTA will be limited in 2019, and the periodic supply and demand tension of PTA may become the normal state.
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