The Energy Variety Trend Differentiates Methanol PTA Steam Coal

The inventory of methanol in coastal ports continues to decrease by about 43,000 tons to 945,000 tons. Although the inventory reduction in coastal markets is in line with market expectations, the overall inventory scale and the speed of inventory reduction are not favorable. Meanwhile, although the overhaul of domestic methanol device was carried out as scheduled, the market supply was not tight, and the methanol market supply pattern was still loose in the short term. Considering the lack of fundamental supporting factors for the upward rise of methanol futures price, further exploration and proximity to the cost line of some producers, the methanol market is currently stuck in a long and short position, and it is expected that the methanol futures price will mainly be settled by oscillation.


Recently, most of the production enterprises to increase the amount of money out of storage and repatriation, spot prices appear a certain range of adjustment. From the demand side, the order situation of downstream processing enterprises has improved month-on-month recently, and the willingness of some regional traders and processing enterprises to stock up has increased slightly, boosting market confidence to some extent. In addition, the upcoming regional price coordination meeting will also give a certain boost to market confidence. Overall, the short - term glass price will be a strong trend of oscillation.


The recent sharp fall in PTA prices is mainly due to the continuous sharp decline in PX prices. Market expectation that hengli second line will be put into production in advance is a direct trigger for the continuous decline of PX. In addition, the production of the projects near the middle of the year, including hengyi brunei, sinochem and hainan refining and chemical project, also exacerbated the market panic. At that time, the superposition and centralized overhaul will end, and the supply surplus is expected to rise sharply in the second half of the year. It is expected that the price of PX will enter a new round of bottoming, which will suppress the PTA in the far month. PTA spot price remains high, in the PTA de-warehousing phase, it is expected that the short-term processing costs will remain high.


Thermal coal port spot prices began to fall. Although the daqin line maintenance caused qinhuangdao coal inventory fall back, but the coal inventory of the surrounding ports have increased. The daily consumption of downstream coastal power plants has obviously decreased and the inventory days have increased accordingly. The demand for spot replenishment is still quite limited. In addition, although the coal pipe ticket control in the production area was still tight in April, with the recovery of port inventory, the upward space of thermal coal price is limited. As the market price risk is still large after the delivery by the buyer of the contract in May, and the actual delivery intention is also subject to great uncertainty, it is expected that the futures price will move in a weak oscillation.


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