Trend Expansion Of PTA Production Profit
Before 2017, the growth rate of PTA production in China was higher than that of PX production in Asia and polyester production in China, and the profit of industrial chain was dominated by upstream PX and downstream polyester enterprises.In 2018-2019, the growth rate of PTA production capacity is lower than that of PX and polyester production, and the relationship between relative strength and weakness in the industrial chain gradually changes, so the profit is inclined to PTA.
Since the oversupply of PTA in 2012, PTA factories have suffered severe losses.PTA supply and demand has been tight since the second half of 2017, and PTA processing profit has been gradually improved.PTA production profit in the first half of 2018 was maintained at 0-200 yuan/ton. PTA spot price rose sharply in the third quarter, PTA production profit increased significantly, and PTA production profit reached 1765 yuan/ton at the highest.As PTA price fell, PTA production profit was compressed again in the fourth quarter, with a loss of -300 yuan/ton.
PTA upstream and downstream production capacity growth differentiation, the supply and demand pattern has changed, stage mismatch between supply and demand easy to cause "roller coaster" market, this market is expected to appear again in 2019.
PTA supply and demand are flourishing in 2018. Supply and polyester demand for PTA have a large growth range. Imports and exports have increased, but the proportion of net imports in the overall supply is low.
New fengming 2.2 million ton and hengli petrochemical 2.5 million ton units will be put into production at the end of 2019. It is expected that the impact of the new units on the market will not appear until 2020 at the earliest.Considering that the actual capacity utilization rate is already very high and the room for further improvement is limited, it is expected that domestic supply growth of PTA will be limited in 2019.In 2019, nearly 5 million tons of new polyester production capacity will be added, and the production of some devices will be delayed. In 2019, the prosperity of polyester industry will decline, and the growth rate of output will fall.Overall, PTA supply and demand will be tight in 2019.
From February 2011 to January 2016, PTA has been in the decline channel for five years.Since January 2016, PTA has bottomed out and rebounded, fluctuating upward.PTA rose sharply in the third quarter of 2018, reaching the 8000 mark at one time, then fell back rapidly and gained support on the rising trend line.In 2018, the overall trend of rising first and then falling is still in the rising channel.It is expected that PTA will advance first and then decrease in 2019. The price center of gravity will continue to move upward, and the overall trend will keep rising.
PX: in 2018, PX rose first and then fell, and the production profit hit a new high.In 2019, there will be nearly 10 million tons of newly put into production in China. With the restart of fuhai innovation PX plant and the import of PX from hengyi brunei, the PX supply will increase sharply and the profit will be squeezed to the maximum.According to the current information, the first stage of the PX plant of hengli petrochemical and zhejiang petrochemical will be put into operation in the second half of 2019, and the supply pressure in the first half of 2019 May be limited.
PTA: only one PTA device was put into operation in 2016 and 2017, and no new PTA device was put into operation in 2018. The nominal capacity growth of PTA is slow.In the second half of 2016, the downstream polyester industry came out of the downturn, and the demand for PTA increased rapidly, and the operation rate of PTA increased successively.Considering that the current actual capacity utilization rate is already very high and the room for improvement is limited, and the next PTA capacity launching cycle needs to wait until 2020, it is expected that the domestic supply growth of PTA will be limited in 2019, and the periodic supply and demand tension of PTA may become the normal state.
According to the comprehensive judgment, PTA supply growth is limited in 2019, and demand growth slows down. It is expected that the overall supply and demand are too tight, and the focus of PTA price will continue to rise as a whole.The author is optimistic about the market of ptain the first half of 2019.
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